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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd