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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still